Posted by: zmanbackup | September 11, 2020

Friday Morning – Primary site went down overnight

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • 9/11 –  We hope you and yours are well.
  • Non event day on the economic data front.

Housekeeping Watch:   We apologize for the inconvenience. We hope to be back on line at the primer site shortly and will advise.

  1. Please bookmark our back up site: http://www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com.  In the rare event our site goes down that one will be activated.
  2. If you reset your password please check your email’s spam folder for it.
  3. Most email providers have a safe list function. Please put zmanalpha@gmail.com and zman@zmansenergybrain.com on your safe list.
  4. The site is searchable by using the pull down menu at upper left.
  5. If you click on the main logo of the site at the top of any page this will take you to the most recent post.
  6. If you can’t find something please just ask in comments.
  7. Subscribers, if you would like to receive trade notices (ZBLASTs) please shoot us an email at zman@zmansenergybrain.com.
  8. There are no dumb questions here except for the one that doesn’t get asked. If you want to keep it private you can email me at the address above. However the answer may be shown in comments if it’s something that would be beneficial to the group. If your question isn’t fully addressed always feel free to redirect.
  9. If you want your screen name changed please email us.
  10. Thanks.

In today’s post please find:

  • the natural gas review (essentially as expected; next week look for modestly larger injection),
  • the oil inventory review (modestly negative as weeklies go, expect throughput bounce next week),
  • comments and a cheat sheet update for FCEL,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (forecast of 0.3% headline and 0.2% core; last reads were 0.6% for both),
  • We get rig counts at 1 pm EST.
  • We get the federal budget at 2 pm EST (no forecast, last month was -$200 B).
  • Next week we get the September OPEC monthly.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today – FCEL
  6. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to … .

Holdings Watch:

ZLT

  • Yesterday’s Trades: None
  • The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil closed down $0.75 yesterday at $37.30 after EIA reported a modestly negative weekly report. Please see our comments in the Oil Inventory Review section below.  This morning crude is trading flat.

  • DJ Basin Watch: The COGCC may propose 2,000′ set backs. This will impact urban names. BCEI is one of the least urban names and we don’t anticipate much impact.

 

Natural gas closed down $0.08 at $2.32 after EIA reported a slightly higher than expected injection (rounding error) that was still below year ago levels and prompts no change in our peak storage thoughts for the season. We are looking for a slightly large build next week. This morning gas is trading down a penny.

  • La Nina Watch:  The CPC declared yesterday that a La Nina has form in the Pacific. The general thinking with La Ninas is that the US northeast will be cooler and wetter than normal and that the south will be warmer and drier. We have done a good bit of work, albeit many years ago, on this at that time found that only significant events (strong El Nino’s or La Nina’s) appeared to be causal.

NGL Price Watch – recovery continues to be grudging, expecting a move higher into 4Q20 (again, especially for propane and ethane).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Supply / Demand Watch:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LNG Watch – this is about to snap higher

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Storage Review 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Oil Inventory Review

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Stuff We Care About Today

FCEL (unowned) – Quick Post Call Update

  • As noted yesterday FCEL beat on revenues but missed at the gross margin and EBITDA lines.
  • They reported the need to replace one module at a power plant earlier than expected and opted to upgrade a second line as well. Concern that there may be more of this in their future weighs on our thoughts here.
  • The ATM program (their at the market share offering) is almost completed ($70 mm out of $75 mm). We strongly suspect another will be announced at it’s completion as they are not near self funding.
  • Groton, CT – U.S. naval base work almost done.  Waiting on some 3rd party work before commissioning.
  • San Bernardino – “progressing well with major civil work complete”
  • Korea – they terminated a licensing agreement and will go forward with direct sales.
  • Other:
    • Generation portfolio: 32.6 MW now, with 40.6 MW in process (includes Groton and San Bernardino)
    • The backlog is struggling to grow and is down 4% YoY.  The backlog is however enormous relative to revenue and overwhelmingly tied to the generation segment ($1.1 of the $1.3 B backlog).
    • Short interest: 15% of outstanding.
  • The progress comments on H2 generation in California for Toyota and the ongoing development of carbon capture in coordination with Exxon were less granular than we would have liked.
  • Nutshell:  The shares fell 17% on the miss yesterday with losses mounting post call. Our sense was that the analysts here are not asking hard enough questions. Our further sense is that investors are tired of the seemingly endless secondaries here with little directionally obvious growth. We are not planning to add the name but will continue to wait and watch for now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments

Responses

  1. test

  2. Apologies for the inconvenience, will keep you posted.

  3. Analyst Watch:
    COG – Citi ups target from $22 to $24.

  4. NKLA (unowned) – just FYI, short shop Hindenberg did a hit piece on them last night, stock was over $50, stock at $36 now.

  5. We are working with our host to get the primer back on line as soon as possible.

  6. Just before equity open:
    Oil just over $37, down 25 cents
    NG down < a penny

  7. JKS up 7%, good volume, have not seen news yet but would assume that’s a broker upgrade.

  8. On a call, shout if you need something

  9. Thursday


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