Posted by: zmanbackup | May 28, 2019

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Trump says U.S. is “not ready” to make a deal with China. All energy eyes on U.S. inventory levels as everyone awaits higher throughput near term. In today’s post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Case-Shiller at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 4.0%).

The Week Ahead: 

  • Wednesday – No economic data release scheduled, API,
  • Thursday – Jobless claims, GDP, advance trade in goods, pending home sales, EIA Weekly Natural Gas, EIA Weekly Oil,
  • Friday – Personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Last Week’s Trades: We doubled our 2% position (now 4%) in MR last week.
  • ​The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell 7% to close at $58.63 last week. The drop was precipitated by a poor weekly report out of EIA and came despite further geopolitical tension and new outages in Nigeria. Brent closed off 5% (taking the spread to WTI over $10 … good for exports) adn the OPEC basket was off 7% (look for price supportive OPEC chatter this week).  This morning crude is trading close to $59.

  • OPEC Watch 1:  Kuwait sees oil market coming into balance by the end of 2019 (which aligns well with their recent call to extend current production cuts.
  • OPEC Watch 2: Sources say a number of countries do not wish to set the date back from late June to early July for the next OPEC meeting.
  • Iran Watch 1:  Iran says it has no interest in negotiating with the U.S. after Trump says he’s not looking for regime change there but wants a summit.
  • Iran Watch 2:  The WSJ reports almost all buyers of Iranian crude have now found alternatives less than one month after the U.S. tightened sanctions by granting no further waivers.
  • Russia Watch:  May 1 to May 26 production at 11.126 mm bopd, down 6% from April average due to contamination.
  • Rig Count Watch:  Progression lower into mid year continues much as expected.

  • Rig Count Watch: Oily basins seeing continued activity decline.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Natural gas eased 1% closing at $2.60 last week after EIA reported a slightly smaller than expected injection but data also pointed to another large injection this week as the weather over the U.S. still remains very much a mixed bag with a colder central patch over the Lower 48.  This morning gas is trading off 4 cents.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

  • Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) came in at 37 vs 32 normal.
  • Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 34 vs 27 normal.

This week’s forecast:  Good to see the heat. 

  • This week, CPC predicts HDDs will drop sharply to 10 vs 24 normal.
  • This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 53 vs 33 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Other Stuff

  • Look for the Gassy Players update in tomorrow’s post,
  • Look for a number of cheat sheet updates this week,
  • An update piece was submitted to SA on Friday for MR

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments if we see any.

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