Posted by: zmanbackup | November 30, 2018

Monday Morning Backup Post



Market Sentiment Watch: Much calmer weak on the economic and political fronts. In energyland eyes remain focused on Venezuela and are increasingly focused on Libya as energy earnings 1Q rapidly approach as well as on monthly reports out of EIA and OPEC. News flow in the group is quiet ahead of earnings. We expect few to no changes in general to capital spending plans with the 1Q announcements which begin in the next two weeks.  In today’s post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = -0.5%, last read was 0.1%).

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday – NFIB small business, job openings, EIA STEO
  • Wednesday – CPI, FOMC minutes, federal budget, OPEC Monthly,
  • Thursday – Jobless claims, PPI,
  • Friday – Import price index, consumer sentiment, current Brexit deadline.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch – more re-balance trades coming this week; we are coring up.
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  Our week ahead
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

Commodity Watch: 

Crude oil – the front month WTI contract rallied 5% to close at $63.08 last week with the strip up 4% to $62.46, both above our near term expected range. Iran and Venezuela outages, increased tensions in Libya and good OPEC + constrain buoyed prices.  Brent closed up 4%, above $70 for the first time this year, at $70.34. This morning crude is trading up slightly.

  • Russia Watch: Russia says OPEC+ should lift production levels after June.
  • Libya Watch: Increased fighting around the capitol over the weekend. No word of supply disruptions at this time but airstrikes hit Tripoli and the airport has been taken by western forces.
  • Saudi Watch 1:  Saudi says it did not threaten to shift from the dollar over NOPEC legislation as stories indicated last week.
  • Saudi Watch 2:  Al Falih said demand for oil in the U.S. continues to grow, is strongest in Asia and is flattening in non U.S. OECD countries.
  • Saudi Watch 3:  Al Falih says oil market approaching balance but is still 70 to 80 mm barrels above the five year average.  Falih says May will be key month in deciding OPEC+ cut extensions.

Natural gas eased 1% front month to close last week at $2.64 after a larger than Street expected natural gas injection was reported.  Note that the 12 month strip and the non winter strip both closed the week unchanged with only a few months changing a penny or two on the week.   This morning gas is trading flat.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

  • Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) were not available at post time vs 116 in the prior week.
  • Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) were not available at post time vs 4 in the prior week.

This week’s forecast:  Much warmer than normal

  • This week, CPC predicts HDDs will drop to 58 vs 100 normal.
  • This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 13 vs normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Our week ahead:

  • Look for a requested name update,
  • Look for two ZLT top 10 updates,
  • Look for Permian Players, Bakken, and Gassy Players short form table updates,

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments if we see any.



  1. Sorry for the inconvenience.

  2. Re Cowen and PE and CPE – just buyers on strike until resolution one way or other next week. Volumes are not high for time of day. People selling into illiquidity.

  3. IT will be on the comment issue this afternoon.

  4. Comments functioning normally on main site.

  5. is this the place for comments?

  6. Try this post:

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