Posted by: zmanbackup | July 17, 2017

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Much quieter week on the economic data front. Should be a quiet week for political news as well with a delay in healthcare maneuvering. Expect a near term pick up in energyland news flow. In today’s post please find The Week That Was, and some other odds and ends.  The ZLT was up 5.2% last week (about 29% in cash) while the XOP was up 4.1% and the OIH was up 5.8%. In case you missed The Wrap you can check it out here.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 19.8).
  • We get the EIA monthly drilling productivity report before noon.

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday – Import prices, home builders’ index,
  • Wednesday – Housing starts, building permits,
  • Thursday – Jobless claims, Philly Fed, leading economic indicators,
  • Friday – no data release scheduled.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

 

Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Last Week’s Trades: None
  • ​The Blotter is updated.
  • Cash is just under 29% of total assets.

Trades under near term consideration:

  • Adds to COG.  Likely headed from 2% to to 5%.
  • Plan to take JAG to 6% from current ~ 4.5% on substantial pull backs prior to the 2Q17 report.
  • Any DJ Basin adds are on hold until 2Q17 reports (combined position in SRCI and XOG is under 3% of total ZLT.
  • MTDR is likely to see a bump higher soon.
  • Service name additions are under consideration as well.
  • Considering parking 5% of cash in VNOM (currently unowned).

ZLT Positions: See primary site (when available). 

Commodity Watch

Crude oil rose 5% to close at $46.54 last week with another better than expected EIA weekly report overcoming an OPEC monthly that was more of a mixed bag. Cushing stocks are now down 10% YoY. OPEC chatter intensified around an emergency meeting set for today and about potentially including Nigeria in the group of countries with production caps. Brent closed up 5% as well while the OPEC basket lost 2%. Please see comments on the EIA Weekly and OPEC in The Week That Was below.  This morning crude is trading flat.

Natural gas rose 4% to close at $2.98 last week on an inline storage injection. The 12 month strip rose 4% as well to $3.05. Storage relative to year ago levels and the five year average tread water for the week. We expect a much smaller injection this week.   This morning gas is trading up 4 cents.

Tropics Watch: Central Atlantic disturbance with 40% chance of near term development.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

  • Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 84 vs 73 normal and 82 in the prior week.

This week’s forecast:  

  • This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 96 vs 75 normal.

The Week That Was

weekly wrap 071417

Stuff We Care About Today

Other Stuff

  • Look for additional Catalyst List updates this week as we prep for the 2Q17 reporting season.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments if we see any.
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Responses

  1. Test

  2. Crude off slightly as equity market prepares to open
    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

  3. NG up 4 cents at $3.02 at equity open. Good PointLogic data confirming good CDD’s.
    https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

  4. IT working on site issue. No ETA yet on fix but should be by this afternoon.

  5. Green group. Oil in volatile but tight band this morning.

  6. Clear and present breakout

  7. Libya said to be at the promised 1.1 mm bopd mark today.

  8. PES move last week/today taking it over the descending 50 day sma pretty nicely.

  9. Please Note: The backup site does not use registrations from our normal site. If you would like to comment here, you will need to register for this site as they are completely separate. It’s free but separate. Apologies for the inconvenience. We think we’ll be back up this afternoon on the primary site.

  10. Analyst Watch: PE – Seaport cut to Buy.

  11. Group quietly higher. Here. Working. Shout if you need something.

  12. Early read on Wednesday Inventories (Bloom)
    Crude: Down 4.2 mm barrels
    Gasoline: Down 0.6 mm barrels
    Distillates: Up 1.6 mm barrels

  13. Primary site back up.


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