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The Main Site at http://www.zmansenergybrain.com is functioning properly. Please go there for the latest post.
Check out Z’s rating on Tipranks:
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Market Sentiment Watch:
Housekeeping Watch: We apologize for the inconvenience. We hope to be back on line at the primer site shortly and will advise.
In today’s post please find:
Ecodata Watch:
In Today’s Post:
Click the link directly below this to … Read More…
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Market Sentiment Watch: Trump says U.S. is “not ready” to make a deal with China. All energy eyes on U.S. inventory levels as everyone awaits higher throughput near term. In today’s post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.
Ecodata Watch:
The Week Ahead:
In Today’s Post:
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Holdings Watch:
ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil fell 7% to close at $58.63 last week. The drop was precipitated by a poor weekly report out of EIA and came despite further geopolitical tension and new outages in Nigeria. Brent closed off 5% (taking the spread to WTI over $10 … good for exports) adn the OPEC basket was off 7% (look for price supportive OPEC chatter this week). This morning crude is trading close to $59.
Natural gas eased 1% closing at $2.60 last week after EIA reported a slightly smaller than expected injection but data also pointed to another large injection this week as the weather over the U.S. still remains very much a mixed bag with a colder central patch over the Lower 48. This morning gas is trading off 4 cents.
Weather Watch:
Last week:
This week’s forecast: Good to see the heat.
The Week That Was
Stuff We Care About Today
Other Stuff
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
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Market Sentiment Watch: Broad markets still focused on China (trade talks are reportedly entirely halted at the moment). Energy markets focused on OPEC (Saudi vs Iran) and the directionality of 2H19 OPEC+ output. In today’s post please find The Week That Was, our week ahead, and some other odds and ends.
Ecodata Watch:
The Week Ahead:
In Today’s Post:
Click the link directly below this to …
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Holdings Watch:
ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil rose 2% to close at $62.76 last week on a positive side of neutral weekly report from EIA and benign monthly reports out of OPEC (they actually moved the call on OPEC volumes up) and IEA. The strip and Brent were up 2% as well with the spread to WTI ending the week over $9. Crack spreads remains very strong (generic 3-2-1 crack at $23.90) and we expect further sawing higher action in U.S. refiner throughput near term. This morning crude is trading up slightly.
Natural gas closed up a penny last week at $2.63 with the strip up a percent at $2.77 as EIA reported another large but in line with expectations injection. We expect a modestly smaller injection this week on higher exports and stronger demand. Prompt and strip gas continue to make slow headway off the April lows as injection run high in the shoulder but perhaps less high than some fear. This morning gas is trading up 5 cents.
Weather Watch:
Last week:
This week’s forecast: Warming up
The Week That Was
Stuff We Care About Today
Other Stuff
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
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Market Sentiment Watch: Much calmer weak on the economic and political fronts. In energyland eyes remain focused on Venezuela and are increasingly focused on Libya as energy earnings 1Q rapidly approach as well as on monthly reports out of EIA and OPEC. News flow in the group is quiet ahead of earnings. We expect few to no changes in general to capital spending plans with the 1Q announcements which begin in the next two weeks. In today’s post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.
Ecodata Watch:
The Week Ahead:
In Today’s Post:
Click the link directly below this to …
break
Holdings Watch:
ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil – the front month WTI contract rallied 5% to close at $63.08 last week with the strip up 4% to $62.46, both above our near term expected range. Iran and Venezuela outages, increased tensions in Libya and good OPEC + constrain buoyed prices. Brent closed up 4%, above $70 for the first time this year, at $70.34. This morning crude is trading up slightly.
Natural gas eased 1% front month to close last week at $2.64 after a larger than Street expected natural gas injection was reported. Note that the 12 month strip and the non winter strip both closed the week unchanged with only a few months changing a penny or two on the week. This morning gas is trading flat.
Weather Watch:
Last week:
This week’s forecast: Much warmer than normal
The Week That Was
Stuff We Care About Today
Our week ahead:
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
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Market Sentiment Watch: Much quieter week on the economic data front. Should be a quiet week for political news as well with a delay in healthcare maneuvering. Expect a near term pick up in energyland news flow. In today’s post please find The Week That Was, and some other odds and ends. The ZLT was up 5.2% last week (about 29% in cash) while the XOP was up 4.1% and the OIH was up 5.8%. In case you missed The Wrap you can check it out here.
Ecodata Watch:
The Week Ahead:
In Today’s Post:
Holdings Watch:
ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)
Trades under near term consideration:
ZLT Positions: See primary site (when available).
Commodity Watch
Crude oil rose 5% to close at $46.54 last week with another better than expected EIA weekly report overcoming an OPEC monthly that was more of a mixed bag. Cushing stocks are now down 10% YoY. OPEC chatter intensified around an emergency meeting set for today and about potentially including Nigeria in the group of countries with production caps. Brent closed up 5% as well while the OPEC basket lost 2%. Please see comments on the EIA Weekly and OPEC in The Week That Was below. This morning crude is trading flat.
Natural gas rose 4% to close at $2.98 last week on an inline storage injection. The 12 month strip rose 4% as well to $3.05. Storage relative to year ago levels and the five year average tread water for the week. We expect a much smaller injection this week. This morning gas is trading up 4 cents.
Tropics Watch: Central Atlantic disturbance with 40% chance of near term development.
Weather Watch:
Last week:
This week’s forecast:
The Week That Was
Stuff We Care About Today
Other Stuff
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
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The Main sites, http://www.zmansenergybrain.com and http://www.z4research.com are functioning normally. Please go there.
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Welcome to the backupsite. We had technical difficulties last evening with our primary server. We will be posting here until further notice (which should be soon). Apologies for the bare bones post today but we lost our prepared remarks for Friday when the server dropped. If you wish to comment on the backup site, you will need to register with the backup site (register below via the login link in the comments field).
Oil closed down 7 cents at $47.96 on Wednesday in a low volatility session after EIA posted the fairly neutral inventory reported outlined below. Later in the day oil directed rigs rose by 3 to 474 vs 555 a year ago. We expect a fairly narrow range and low volume session today with volatility picking back up next week in front of the OPEC meeting. This morning oil is trading off $0.60 early.
Natural Gas rose 4 cents to close at $3.03 after EIA reported the first withdrawal of the season. Just 2 Bcf but the consensus was calling for a positive 7 and while we may still get one more small injection this season on holiday related slack demand we have essentially peaked with the long held expectation band of 3.95 to 4.05 Tcf. We see natural gas remaining within our near term expectations band of $2.80 to $3.10 until we get a more solid handle on the tail end of the winter forecast. This morning natural gas is trading flat.
Natural Gas Inventory Review and Oil Inventory Review
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Hello,
Our normal site is offline due to technical difficulties. We are working with our host to remedy the issue.
Thanks for understanding, have a happy rest of your Thanksgiving, and Best,
Z
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