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Market Sentiment Watch: Trump says U.S. is “not ready” to make a deal with China. All energy eyes on U.S. inventory levels as everyone awaits higher throughput near term. In today’s post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get Case-Shiller at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 4.0%).

The Week Ahead: 

• Wednesday – No economic data release scheduled, API,
• Thursday – Jobless claims, GDP, advance trade in goods, pending home sales, EIA Weekly Natural Gas, EIA Weekly Oil,
• Friday – Personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades: We doubled our 2% position (now 4%) in MR last week.
• ​The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell 7% to close at $58.63 last week. The drop was precipitated by a poor weekly report out of EIA and came despite further geopolitical tension and new outages in Nigeria. Brent closed off 5% (taking the spread to WTI over $10 … good for exports) adn the OPEC basket was off 7% (look for price supportive OPEC chatter this week).  This morning crude is trading close to $59.

• OPEC Watch 1:  Kuwait sees oil market coming into balance by the end of 2019 (which aligns well with their recent call to extend current production cuts.
• OPEC Watch 2: Sources say a number of countries do not wish to set the date back from late June to early July for the next OPEC meeting.
• Iran Watch 1:  Iran says it has no interest in negotiating with the U.S. after Trump says he’s not looking for regime change there but wants a summit.
• Iran Watch 2:  The WSJ reports almost all buyers of Iranian crude have now found alternatives less than one month after the U.S. tightened sanctions by granting no further waivers.
• Russia Watch:  May 1 to May 26 production at 11.126 mm bopd, down 6% from April average due to contamination.
• Rig Count Watch:  Progression lower into mid year continues much as expected.

• Rig Count Watch: Oily basins seeing continued activity decline.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Natural gas eased 1% closing at $2.60 last week after EIA reported a slightly smaller than expected injection but data also pointed to another large injection this week as the weather over the U.S. still remains very much a mixed bag with a colder central patch over the Lower 48.  This morning gas is trading off 4 cents.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

• Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) came in at 37 vs 32 normal.
• Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 34 vs 27 normal.

This week’s forecast:  Good to see the heat. 

• This week, CPC predicts HDDs will drop sharply to 10 vs 24 normal.
• ​This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 53 vs 33 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Other Stuff

• Look for the Gassy Players update in tomorrow’s post,
• Look for a number of cheat sheet updates this week,
• An update piece was submitted to SA on Friday for MR

​Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments if we see any.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Broad markets still focused on China (trade talks are reportedly entirely halted at the moment). Energy markets focused on OPEC (Saudi vs Iran) and the directionality of 2H19 OPEC+ output.  In today’s post please find The Week That Was, our week ahead, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get the Chicago Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.15).

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday – Existing home sales,
• Wednesday – FOMC minutes,
• Thursday – Jobless claims, new home sales,
• Friday – Durable goods, core capital goods.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today –  Our week ahead
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades: None
• ​The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil rose 2% to close at $62.76 last week on a positive side of neutral weekly report from EIA and benign monthly reports out of OPEC (they actually moved the call on OPEC volumes up) and IEA. The strip and Brent were up 2% as well with the spread to WTI ending the week over $9. Crack spreads remains very strong (generic 3-2-1 crack at $23.90) and we expect further sawing higher action in U.S. refiner throughput near term.  This morning crude is trading up slightly.

• OPEC Watch: The Sunday meeting of the JMMC yielded a statement pointing to a continued focus on achieving a balanced oil market.  Saudi indicated there is consensus to continue bringing inventories down while reassuring customers that all demand will be met.  UAE indicated now is not the right time to increase output.
• Saudi Watch:  Reports of additional Houthi attacks in Saudi were reported overnight.
• Russia Watch:  Russia said it is open to increased output but said it will comply with whatever OPEC+ decides at the June meeting.
• Iran Watch:  Trump told Iran to never threaten the U.S. or face the end of Iran.  This comes after parts of his administration looked to de-escalate tensions late last week.

Natural gas closed up a penny last week at $2.63 with the strip up a percent at $2.77 as EIA reported another large but in line with expectations injection. We expect a modestly smaller injection this week on higher exports and stronger demand.  Prompt and strip gas continue to make slow headway off the April lows as injection run high in the shoulder but perhaps less high than some fear. This morning gas is trading up 5 cents.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

• Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) came in at 47 vs 41 normal and 48 in the prior week. .
• Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 20 vs 20 normal and 18 in the prior week.

This week’s forecast:  Warming up

• This week, CPC predicts HDDs will drop to 23 vs 32 normal.
• ​This week, CPC predicts CDDs will double to 42 vs 27 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

 

Other Stuff

• Look for additional cheat sheet updates this week,
• Look for updated comments on VNOM (unowned),
• Look for the return of the Permian Players Short Form Update and Orange Charts,
• Look for the Gassy Players update this week.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments

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Market Sentiment Watch: Much calmer weak on the economic and political fronts. In energyland eyes remain focused on Venezuela and are increasingly focused on Libya as energy earnings 1Q rapidly approach as well as on monthly reports out of EIA and OPEC. News flow in the group is quiet ahead of earnings. We expect few to no changes in general to capital spending plans with the 1Q announcements which begin in the next two weeks.  In today’s post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = -0.5%, last read was 0.1%).

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday – NFIB small business, job openings, EIA STEO
• Wednesday – CPI, FOMC minutes, federal budget, OPEC Monthly,
• Thursday – Jobless claims, PPI,
• Friday – Import price index, consumer sentiment, current Brexit deadline.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch – more re-balance trades coming this week; we are coring up.
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today –  Our week ahead
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades: We added to our position in HPR at $2.40.  Please see Blotter II for details.
• ​The Blotter is updated.
• The ZLT Positions are updated here.

Commodity Watch: 

Crude oil – the front month WTI contract rallied 5% to close at $63.08 last week with the strip up 4% to $62.46, both above our near term expected range. Iran and Venezuela outages, increased tensions in Libya and good OPEC + constrain buoyed prices.  Brent closed up 4%, above $70 for the first time this year, at $70.34. This morning crude is trading up slightly.

• Russia Watch: Russia says OPEC+ should lift production levels after June.
• Libya Watch: Increased fighting around the capitol over the weekend. No word of supply disruptions at this time but airstrikes hit Tripoli and the airport has been taken by western forces.
• Saudi Watch 1:  Saudi says it did not threaten to shift from the dollar over NOPEC legislation as stories indicated last week.
• Saudi Watch 2:  Al Falih said demand for oil in the U.S. continues to grow, is strongest in Asia and is flattening in non U.S. OECD countries.
• Saudi Watch 3:  Al Falih says oil market approaching balance but is still 70 to 80 mm barrels above the five year average.  Falih says May will be key month in deciding OPEC+ cut extensions.

Natural gas eased 1% front month to close last week at $2.64 after a larger than Street expected natural gas injection was reported.  Note that the 12 month strip and the non winter strip both closed the week unchanged with only a few months changing a penny or two on the week.   This morning gas is trading flat.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

• Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) were not available at post time vs 116 in the prior week.
• Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) were not available at post time vs 4 in the prior week.

This week’s forecast:  Much warmer than normal

• This week, CPC predicts HDDs will drop to 58 vs 100 normal.
• ​This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 13 vs 5 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Our week ahead:

• Look for a requested name update,
• Look for two ZLT top 10 updates,
• Look for Permian Players, Bakken, and Gassy Players short form table updates,

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments if we see any.

 

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Market Sentiment Watch: Much quieter week on the economic data front. Should be a quiet week for political news as well with a delay in healthcare maneuvering. Expect a near term pick up in energyland news flow. In today’s post please find The Week That Was, and some other odds and ends.  The ZLT was up 5.2% last week (about 29% in cash) while the XOP was up 4.1% and the OIH was up 5.8%. In case you missed The Wrap you can check it out here.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 19.8).
• We get the EIA monthly drilling productivity report before noon.

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday – Import prices, home builders’ index,
• Wednesday – Housing starts, building permits,
• Thursday – Jobless claims, Philly Fed, leading economic indicators,
• Friday – no data release scheduled.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today
5. Odds & Ends

 

Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades: None
• ​The Blotter is updated.
• Cash is just under 29% of total assets.

Trades under near term consideration:

• Adds to COG.  Likely headed from 2% to to 5%.
• Plan to take JAG to 6% from current ~ 4.5% on substantial pull backs prior to the 2Q17 report.
• Any DJ Basin adds are on hold until 2Q17 reports (combined position in SRCI and XOG is under 3% of total ZLT.
• MTDR is likely to see a bump higher soon.
• Service name additions are under consideration as well.
• Considering parking 5% of cash in VNOM (currently unowned).

ZLT Positions: See primary site (when available). 

Commodity Watch

Crude oil rose 5% to close at $46.54 last week with another better than expected EIA weekly report overcoming an OPEC monthly that was more of a mixed bag. Cushing stocks are now down 10% YoY. OPEC chatter intensified around an emergency meeting set for today and about potentially including Nigeria in the group of countries with production caps. Brent closed up 5% as well while the OPEC basket lost 2%. Please see comments on the EIA Weekly and OPEC in The Week That Was below.  This morning crude is trading flat.

Natural gas rose 4% to close at $2.98 last week on an inline storage injection. The 12 month strip rose 4% as well to $3.05. Storage relative to year ago levels and the five year average tread water for the week. We expect a much smaller injection this week.   This morning gas is trading up 4 cents.

Tropics Watch: Central Atlantic disturbance with 40% chance of near term development.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

• Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 84 vs 73 normal and 82 in the prior week.

This week’s forecast:  

• ​This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 96 vs 75 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Other Stuff

• Look for additional Catalyst List updates this week as we prep for the 2Q17 reporting season.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments if we see any.

The Main sites, http://www.zmansenergybrain.com and http://www.z4research.com are functioning normally. Please go there. 

Welcome to the backupsite. We had technical difficulties last evening with our primary server. We will be posting here until further notice (which should be soon). Apologies for the bare bones post today but we lost our prepared remarks for Friday when the server dropped.  If you wish to comment on the backup site, you will need to register with the backup site (register below via the login link in the comments field).

Oil closed down 7 cents at $47.96 on Wednesday in a low volatility session after EIA posted the fairly neutral inventory reported outlined below. Later in the day oil directed rigs rose by 3 to 474 vs 555 a year ago. We expect a fairly narrow range and low volume session today with volatility picking back up next week in front of the OPEC meeting. This morning oil is trading off $0.60 early.

Natural Gas rose 4 cents to close at $3.03 after EIA reported the first withdrawal of the season. Just 2 Bcf but the consensus was calling for a positive 7 and while we may still get one more small injection this season on holiday related slack demand we have essentially peaked with the long held expectation band of 3.95 to 4.05 Tcf. We see natural gas remaining within our near term expectations band of $2.80 to $3.10 until we get a more solid handle on the tail end of the winter forecast. This morning natural gas is trading flat.

Natural Gas Inventory Review and Oil Inventory Review

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