Site troubles today. We will advise when the main site is back on line. In the meantime …

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Inflation and Delta on market’s mind.

Housekeeping Watch:  

• The request line is open
• Please see the note at the end of today’s post.

In today’s post please find:

• The Week That Was ,
• The Five Things,
• and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here. We included a number of comments regarding the quarter to date.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get the NAHB home builders’ index at 10 am EST (F = 81, last read was 81). 

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday – Building permits, housing starts, API oil inventories,
• Wednesday – EIA oil inventories, 
• Thursday – Jobless claims, existing home sales, leading indicators, EIA natural gas storage, 
• Friday – Markit manufacturing and services PMI. 

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch – OPEC+ agreement reached
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, Calendar
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades:
  • Sold VCVC down 25%. We kept the warrants.
  • Sold ENPH, up 39%. We may re-enter after the 2Q21 report.
  • Added small to PTRA.
  • Added small to BCEI.
• ​The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell 3.7% to close at $71.81 with a neutral looking weekly from EIA, a move by EIA to up shale play growth again, and uncertainty from OPEC+ (see below) helping with profit taking. Longs vs shorts actually advanced to 9.5x (the highest level of the year) and we see this setting up further volatility. Crack spreads remain healthy but we do need to see more robust, more consistent gasoline demand in the U.S. This morning crude is trading off $2.40 in part on  Covid Delta fears

• OPEC Watch: Agreement reached. OPEC+ met over the weekend:
  • Production to increase by 0.4 mm bopd per month beginning in August.
  • 5 countries received an aggregate base line increase of 1.63 mm bopd over prior quota levels (no effect on near term group production, just a higher baseline to eventually get to)
  • Russia says it will be back to pre Covid production levels in May 2022 and is as part of the agreement increasing volumes by 0.1 mm bopd (or 25% of the monthly increase).
  • OPEC+ agrees to monthly meetings. 
  • OPEC+ now seen as unified with long term plan to stick together.  

Natural gas inched up 0.2% to close at $3.682 last week with the strip rising 2 cents to $3.49 despite last week’s larger than expected storage build.

• Storage is now 17.1% below year ago levels and 6.7% below the five year average.
• We are on track for bullish storage peak and 2022 trough levels at this time.
• Nymex shorts remain very much in place (the more to cover this coming winter),
• This week we expect a smaller build.
• This morning gas is trading Up 7 cents.

Weather Watch:

• Last week:  Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 79 vs 73 normal and 76 in the prior week.
• This week’s forecast:  This week, CPC predicts CDDs will hold flat at 79 vs 75 normal.

​The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

The Five Things(Significant changes or re-highlights in RED);  we are shortening this section to “just the key of key thoughts” on a weekly basis. 

1. Biden Admin: 
   1. Renewables. We seeGreen/Renewable names doing well under Biden – our sense is that after a post inauguration dip that green space names will begin to base and then carry higher.
   2. Iran Nuclear Deal – Uncertain If/When A Deal Will Be Struck – indirect talks continue
      1. Possible sanctions will come off Iranian oil barrels this year but chances appear to be falling. 
      2. Iran is doing several things that will make a deal tougher to reach.
   3. Executive Orders ~  We have become less concerned about Biden Administration really impacting oil and gas companies. 
      1. Watch for drill and frac setback ruling – early 2022. 
      2. Expect NO nationwide frac ban. 
      3. Federal permit resumption – summer 2021. 
      4. Reserve liability component.  No news is good news for oil and gas names here. Very very quiet on this front. 
   4. Infrastructure – Very uncertain – vote this week, unlikely to pass. Would likely be good for renewables segment, especially EVs and grid.
2. Coronavirus:  Delta Numbers are NOT Good.  
   1. U.S. is mostly open.  Big ups lately among unvaccinated. Concern re fall / winter.  
   2. Rest of world far less vaccinated.  Outside U.S. said to be 1% of total population. 
   3. Variants largely addressed by vaccines.
   4. 2Q21 conference call season will be interesting as supply chains show positive signs and some raw materials costs are already starting to come off spikes. 
   5. Expect very strong summer 2021 travel season.  In progress. 
3. Oil Production / Sentiment:
   1. U.S. Production – Production edging higher now; expect about 0.1 mm bopd per 6 week period.  
   2. OPEC Production – increasing by 0.4 mm bopd per month beginning August 2021 forward.
   3. U.S. Rigs – The 2Q21 call season should again point to discipline but there are also likely to be some outlier managements who step up activity more than previously expected on the recent move in oil.
   4. Frac Spreads:  242 last week (another new pandemic high).  Our play here has very much been LBRT and we also added PUMP.   We are likely to add NEX (unowned) as well. 
      1. LBRT thinks:
         1. 165 spreads needed to hold U.S. flat in 2021. That’s just oil.
         2. and we need 25 to 30 more spreads to maintain natural gas production.
         3. additional 80 spreads to grow U.S. oil production by 1 mm bopd in 2021.
         4. Therefore, to MAINTAIN oil and gas production in 2021, at end of 2020 levels, we need 190 to 200 spreads (as an average for the year).
         5. we expect spreads to rise in 1H21 to handle DUC completions.
   5. Oil Inventory Levels:
      1. Crude stocks are ~ 8% below five year average.
      2. Gasoline stocks are below five year average. Need more consistent demand rest of summer. 
      3. Distillate stocks are 4% below five year now too.   
      4. Expect positive YoY comparisons on U.S. throughput near term with weak stocks and strong cracks where they are.
4. Natural Gas Sentiment:
   1. Supply is weak (but improving as U.S. production rises)
      1. LNG exports are holding near record high levels.
      2. Mexico exports holding near record high levels. Exports to Mexico set a new record twice in June.
      3. Imports from Canada – uncertain at this time, likely low but not as low as expected previously due to higher U.S. pricing. 
      4. Production is above year ago levels, but still off peak.
      5. Therefore, Net supply is down YoY and not set to improve (significantly) until later this year.
   2. Watching for higher price impacts on gas-fired generation.
   3. Shorts have grown increasingly confident again, poised for typical shoulder season weakness. The more to cover later.
   4. We continue to simply expect better sentiment from gassy upstream names than we saw in 2020. So far so good on this call. 
   5. Natural Gas Storage is in deficit to year ago and five year average levels now. 
   6. We have large positions in AR (4th in ZLT) and VEI (5th). We are re-growing a position 
   7. Expect more consolidation in the gassy space. We’ve see public gas for public gas. We’ve seen public gas for private gas.  We expect to see public oil for public gas some day soon (2H21 or 1H22). 
   8. NGL prices are at 1 year plus highs… week after week – very strong.
      1. Propane prices inventories are very low. Propane and ethane pricing are counter-seasonally strong.
      2. Ethane recovery may slow U.S. production bounce.
      3. Good for our positions in AR, SWN, BCEI, and MGY.
5. Renewables & SPACs: 
   1. Sentiment is “guarded and … starting to recover”, an improvement from our recent thoughts of “weak” AND the stocks appear to be basing. Expect bottom fish action soon, already seeing this in solar and middle tier EV.
   2. Renewables are just under 50% of assets in the portfolio via 12 names.
      1. We want to add more grid exposure and recently added more STEM.
      2. We are working to balance our renewable holdings among Wind, Fuel Cells, Solar, EV, and Storage/Grid resiliency.   We are currently heavily skewed towards Wind but have recently been bolstering Solar (recent adds to ENPH and SHLS) .
   3. SPACs (the SPAC % in the portfolio is captured in the nearly 50% Renewables wedge noted above)
      1. Sentiment remains negative but we are seeing greater bifurcation in performance for those SPACs that brought more “real companies to market. Those with more near term revenue and the promised of positive EBITDA and built out manufacturing facilities. Those that could have successfully IPO’d.
      2. An example of this is STEM and the recent jump in the shares off the SPAC hate induced lows.
      3. A future example of this, we believe, will be PTRA.
   4. Infrastructure Bill – unsure if this can pass, will hurt sentiment in the space when/if it fails, at least briefly. 

2Q21 Earnings Calendar So Far

Housekeeping Watch:  I will be on the road the first week of August taking one last partial vacation before intern #1 departs for college. We will cover all the earnings that week but the posts will be even more bullet point format than usual.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments

The Main Site at http://www.zmansenergybrain.com is functioning properly. Please go there for the latest post.

Check out Z’s rating on Tipranks:

https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/steve-zachritz

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• 9/11 –  We hope you and yours are well.
• Non event day on the economic data front.

Housekeeping Watch:   We apologize for the inconvenience. We hope to be back on line at the primer site shortly and will advise.

1. Please bookmark our back up site: http://www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com.  In the rare event our site goes down that one will be activated.
2. If you reset your password please check your email’s spam folder for it.
3. Most email providers have a safe list function. Please put zmanalpha@gmail.com and zman@zmansenergybrain.com on your safe list.
4. The site is searchable by using the pull down menu at upper left.
5. If you click on the main logo of the site at the top of any page this will take you to the most recent post.
6. If you can’t find something please just ask in comments.
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9. If you want your screen name changed please email us.
10. Thanks.

In today’s post please find:

• the natural gas review (essentially as expected; next week look for modestly larger injection),
• the oil inventory review (modestly negative as weeklies go, expect throughput bounce next week),
• comments and a cheat sheet update for FCEL,
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (forecast of 0.3% headline and 0.2% core; last reads were 0.6% for both),
• We get rig counts at 1 pm EST.
• We get the federal budget at 2 pm EST (no forecast, last month was -$200 B).
• Next week we get the September OPEC monthly.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h
3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
4. Oil Inventory Review
5. Stuff We Care About Today – FCEL
6. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to … 

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Market Sentiment Watch: Trump says U.S. is “not ready” to make a deal with China. All energy eyes on U.S. inventory levels as everyone awaits higher throughput near term. In today’s post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get Case-Shiller at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 4.0%).

The Week Ahead: 

• Wednesday – No economic data release scheduled, API,
• Thursday – Jobless claims, GDP, advance trade in goods, pending home sales, EIA Weekly Natural Gas, EIA Weekly Oil,
• Friday – Personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades: We doubled our 2% position (now 4%) in MR last week.
• ​The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell 7% to close at $58.63 last week. The drop was precipitated by a poor weekly report out of EIA and came despite further geopolitical tension and new outages in Nigeria. Brent closed off 5% (taking the spread to WTI over $10 … good for exports) adn the OPEC basket was off 7% (look for price supportive OPEC chatter this week).  This morning crude is trading close to $59.

• OPEC Watch 1:  Kuwait sees oil market coming into balance by the end of 2019 (which aligns well with their recent call to extend current production cuts.
• OPEC Watch 2: Sources say a number of countries do not wish to set the date back from late June to early July for the next OPEC meeting.
• Iran Watch 1:  Iran says it has no interest in negotiating with the U.S. after Trump says he’s not looking for regime change there but wants a summit.
• Iran Watch 2:  The WSJ reports almost all buyers of Iranian crude have now found alternatives less than one month after the U.S. tightened sanctions by granting no further waivers.
• Russia Watch:  May 1 to May 26 production at 11.126 mm bopd, down 6% from April average due to contamination.
• Rig Count Watch:  Progression lower into mid year continues much as expected.

• Rig Count Watch: Oily basins seeing continued activity decline.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Natural gas eased 1% closing at $2.60 last week after EIA reported a slightly smaller than expected injection but data also pointed to another large injection this week as the weather over the U.S. still remains very much a mixed bag with a colder central patch over the Lower 48.  This morning gas is trading off 4 cents.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

• Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) came in at 37 vs 32 normal.
• Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 34 vs 27 normal.

This week’s forecast:  Good to see the heat. 

• This week, CPC predicts HDDs will drop sharply to 10 vs 24 normal.
• ​This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 53 vs 33 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Other Stuff

• Look for the Gassy Players update in tomorrow’s post,
• Look for a number of cheat sheet updates this week,
• An update piece was submitted to SA on Friday for MR

​Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments if we see any.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Broad markets still focused on China (trade talks are reportedly entirely halted at the moment). Energy markets focused on OPEC (Saudi vs Iran) and the directionality of 2H19 OPEC+ output.  In today’s post please find The Week That Was, our week ahead, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get the Chicago Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.15).

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday – Existing home sales,
• Wednesday – FOMC minutes,
• Thursday – Jobless claims, new home sales,
• Friday – Durable goods, core capital goods.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today –  Our week ahead
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades: None
• ​The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil rose 2% to close at $62.76 last week on a positive side of neutral weekly report from EIA and benign monthly reports out of OPEC (they actually moved the call on OPEC volumes up) and IEA. The strip and Brent were up 2% as well with the spread to WTI ending the week over $9. Crack spreads remains very strong (generic 3-2-1 crack at $23.90) and we expect further sawing higher action in U.S. refiner throughput near term.  This morning crude is trading up slightly.

• OPEC Watch: The Sunday meeting of the JMMC yielded a statement pointing to a continued focus on achieving a balanced oil market.  Saudi indicated there is consensus to continue bringing inventories down while reassuring customers that all demand will be met.  UAE indicated now is not the right time to increase output.
• Saudi Watch:  Reports of additional Houthi attacks in Saudi were reported overnight.
• Russia Watch:  Russia said it is open to increased output but said it will comply with whatever OPEC+ decides at the June meeting.
• Iran Watch:  Trump told Iran to never threaten the U.S. or face the end of Iran.  This comes after parts of his administration looked to de-escalate tensions late last week.

Natural gas closed up a penny last week at $2.63 with the strip up a percent at $2.77 as EIA reported another large but in line with expectations injection. We expect a modestly smaller injection this week on higher exports and stronger demand.  Prompt and strip gas continue to make slow headway off the April lows as injection run high in the shoulder but perhaps less high than some fear. This morning gas is trading up 5 cents.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

• Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) came in at 47 vs 41 normal and 48 in the prior week. .
• Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 20 vs 20 normal and 18 in the prior week.

This week’s forecast:  Warming up

• This week, CPC predicts HDDs will drop to 23 vs 32 normal.
• ​This week, CPC predicts CDDs will double to 42 vs 27 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

 

Other Stuff

• Look for additional cheat sheet updates this week,
• Look for updated comments on VNOM (unowned),
• Look for the return of the Permian Players Short Form Update and Orange Charts,
• Look for the Gassy Players update this week.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments

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Market Sentiment Watch: Much calmer weak on the economic and political fronts. In energyland eyes remain focused on Venezuela and are increasingly focused on Libya as energy earnings 1Q rapidly approach as well as on monthly reports out of EIA and OPEC. News flow in the group is quiet ahead of earnings. We expect few to no changes in general to capital spending plans with the 1Q announcements which begin in the next two weeks.  In today’s post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = -0.5%, last read was 0.1%).

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday – NFIB small business, job openings, EIA STEO
• Wednesday – CPI, FOMC minutes, federal budget, OPEC Monthly,
• Thursday – Jobless claims, PPI,
• Friday – Import price index, consumer sentiment, current Brexit deadline.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch – more re-balance trades coming this week; we are coring up.
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today –  Our week ahead
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades: We added to our position in HPR at $2.40.  Please see Blotter II for details.
• ​The Blotter is updated.
• The ZLT Positions are updated here.

Commodity Watch: 

Crude oil – the front month WTI contract rallied 5% to close at $63.08 last week with the strip up 4% to $62.46, both above our near term expected range. Iran and Venezuela outages, increased tensions in Libya and good OPEC + constrain buoyed prices.  Brent closed up 4%, above $70 for the first time this year, at $70.34. This morning crude is trading up slightly.

• Russia Watch: Russia says OPEC+ should lift production levels after June.
• Libya Watch: Increased fighting around the capitol over the weekend. No word of supply disruptions at this time but airstrikes hit Tripoli and the airport has been taken by western forces.
• Saudi Watch 1:  Saudi says it did not threaten to shift from the dollar over NOPEC legislation as stories indicated last week.
• Saudi Watch 2:  Al Falih said demand for oil in the U.S. continues to grow, is strongest in Asia and is flattening in non U.S. OECD countries.
• Saudi Watch 3:  Al Falih says oil market approaching balance but is still 70 to 80 mm barrels above the five year average.  Falih says May will be key month in deciding OPEC+ cut extensions.

Natural gas eased 1% front month to close last week at $2.64 after a larger than Street expected natural gas injection was reported.  Note that the 12 month strip and the non winter strip both closed the week unchanged with only a few months changing a penny or two on the week.   This morning gas is trading flat.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

• Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) were not available at post time vs 116 in the prior week.
• Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) were not available at post time vs 4 in the prior week.

This week’s forecast:  Much warmer than normal

• This week, CPC predicts HDDs will drop to 58 vs 100 normal.
• ​This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 13 vs 5 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Our week ahead:

• Look for a requested name update,
• Look for two ZLT top 10 updates,
• Look for Permian Players, Bakken, and Gassy Players short form table updates,

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments if we see any.

 

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Market Sentiment Watch: Much quieter week on the economic data front. Should be a quiet week for political news as well with a delay in healthcare maneuvering. Expect a near term pick up in energyland news flow. In today’s post please find The Week That Was, and some other odds and ends.  The ZLT was up 5.2% last week (about 29% in cash) while the XOP was up 4.1% and the OIH was up 5.8%. In case you missed The Wrap you can check it out here.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 19.8).
• We get the EIA monthly drilling productivity report before noon.

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday – Import prices, home builders’ index,
• Wednesday – Housing starts, building permits,
• Thursday – Jobless claims, Philly Fed, leading economic indicators,
• Friday – no data release scheduled.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today
5. Odds & Ends

 

Holdings Watch:

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

• Last Week’s Trades: None
• ​The Blotter is updated.
• Cash is just under 29% of total assets.

Trades under near term consideration:

• Adds to COG.  Likely headed from 2% to to 5%.
• Plan to take JAG to 6% from current ~ 4.5% on substantial pull backs prior to the 2Q17 report.
• Any DJ Basin adds are on hold until 2Q17 reports (combined position in SRCI and XOG is under 3% of total ZLT.
• MTDR is likely to see a bump higher soon.
• Service name additions are under consideration as well.
• Considering parking 5% of cash in VNOM (currently unowned).

ZLT Positions: See primary site (when available). 

Commodity Watch

Crude oil rose 5% to close at $46.54 last week with another better than expected EIA weekly report overcoming an OPEC monthly that was more of a mixed bag. Cushing stocks are now down 10% YoY. OPEC chatter intensified around an emergency meeting set for today and about potentially including Nigeria in the group of countries with production caps. Brent closed up 5% as well while the OPEC basket lost 2%. Please see comments on the EIA Weekly and OPEC in The Week That Was below.  This morning crude is trading flat.

Natural gas rose 4% to close at $2.98 last week on an inline storage injection. The 12 month strip rose 4% as well to $3.05. Storage relative to year ago levels and the five year average tread water for the week. We expect a much smaller injection this week.   This morning gas is trading up 4 cents.

Tropics Watch: Central Atlantic disturbance with 40% chance of near term development.

Weather Watch:

Last week:  

• Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) came in at 84 vs 73 normal and 82 in the prior week.

This week’s forecast:  

• ​This week, CPC predicts CDDs will rise to 96 vs 75 normal.

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Other Stuff

• Look for additional Catalyst List updates this week as we prep for the 2Q17 reporting season.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments if we see any.

The Main sites, http://www.zmansenergybrain.com and http://www.z4research.com are functioning normally. Please go there. 

Welcome to the backupsite. We had technical difficulties last evening with our primary server. We will be posting here until further notice (which should be soon). Apologies for the bare bones post today but we lost our prepared remarks for Friday when the server dropped.  If you wish to comment on the backup site, you will need to register with the backup site (register below via the login link in the comments field).

Oil closed down 7 cents at $47.96 on Wednesday in a low volatility session after EIA posted the fairly neutral inventory reported outlined below. Later in the day oil directed rigs rose by 3 to 474 vs 555 a year ago. We expect a fairly narrow range and low volume session today with volatility picking back up next week in front of the OPEC meeting. This morning oil is trading off $0.60 early.

Natural Gas rose 4 cents to close at $3.03 after EIA reported the first withdrawal of the season. Just 2 Bcf but the consensus was calling for a positive 7 and while we may still get one more small injection this season on holiday related slack demand we have essentially peaked with the long held expectation band of 3.95 to 4.05 Tcf. We see natural gas remaining within our near term expectations band of $2.80 to $3.10 until we get a more solid handle on the tail end of the winter forecast. This morning natural gas is trading flat.

Natural Gas Inventory Review and Oil Inventory Review

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